Birtles: Don't shout about it, but Forest can go up

ON the most basic level, what are the requirements of a promotion-winning side?

You win your home matches and draw away.

Of all the football adages out there, it has to be one of the oldest. Heck, it probably pre-dates substitutes, balls without laces and metal goalposts.

But unlike meaningless gibberish like 'it's a game of two halves' or 'it's a funny old game' it actually has some genuine foundation.

In fact, it is entirely correct.

And it is also why, while Billy Davies may continue to play it down – and I am sure he will – Nottingham Forest have to be considered realistic promotion contenders.

I am not just jumping on the bandwagon here, or saying it because I want it to be true.

Just look at the evidence.

Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool, the Premiership big four – they have all lost away from home.

Yet Forest remain unbeaten away from the City Ground.

They are the only team in the entire country who can claim that.

And the manner in which they sustained that record last weekend was cause for encouragement in itself.

Because Davies' side just don't seem to know when they are beaten. They do not know when to lay down and die.

Cardiff could have gone top of the table if they had won at their imaginatively-titled Cardiff City Stadium.

And they would have felt they were close to doing exactly that leading 1-0 going into injury time.

But Forest got what they deserved when Lewis McGugan popped up with a cracking strike to make it 1-1.

Some would argue that he was a little lucky that the chance fell to him, with the ball taking a kind bounce off a defender's heel.

Well, I say you make your own luck and, in my eyes, McGugan merely benefited from being positive.

He was trying to turn his marker and run at him – and the ball bounced his way.

And you couldn't claim there was any good fortune involved in his finish. It was emphatic.

Make no mistake, Cardiff are a good side.

They have come close to winning promotion in both of the last two seasons – and I expect them to be in the mix this time too.

But I also believe Forest can be as well.

They have proved themselves by deservedly beating Newcastle and producing a performance against West Brom that deserved far more than a defeat.

They beat Middlesbrough in the Carling Cup and, let's not forget, won five on the bounce prior to their two most recent draws.

After one of those, at Peterborough, Barry Fry predicted that Forest would be up there when it mattered at the end of the season. And it is hard to argue on current form.

Certainly, if Billy is not named manager of the month today, he can consider himself very unlucky.

But, putting the past to one side, Forest are equipped to continue their push for promotion in the future as well.

The squad is so much stronger this season all round.

Lee Camp is making some outstanding saves, Wes Morgan is back to his colossal best in the centre of defence and the strikers seem to be coping with the loss of Dexter Blackstock to injury.

But it is in midfield where we have seen the biggest improvement.

Davies made a point of praising Guy Moussi this week, which is completely understandable in the circumstances.

Last season one or two teams began to figure him out a little bit; I thought he became too easy to handle in the centre of the pitch.

But, since coming back from injury in the last month or so, he has been outstanding.

Newcastle certainly couldn't cope with him.

He is physically strong, hard working and can play a little bit too.

As can Polish under-21 starlet Radoslaw Majewski, who is a total joy to watch.

If Forest can teach him when to try to play the killer passes he is capable of and when to do things simply, they will have a major talent on their hands.

But it is Paul McKenna who has been the driving force.

I made a point of watching him and what he did on Sunday and what I saw was a lesson in how to play in the centre of midfield.

His positional sense, particularly off the ball, was outstanding. He has a knack of being in the right place at the right time – and that isn't luck either.

What he does looks simple, but it takes intelligence and instinct to do it.

He could be the player Forest have been missing for a long time.

He can make them tick.

And, when you add all the small parts together, despite what Davies might say – and I do understand why he has to play things down – the whole is potentially something special.

There is still a long way to go but, whisper it quietly, Forest can win promotion this season. They can.